GOOD
NEWS: COMING SUMMER WILL CONTROL CORONAVIRUS; SCIENTISTS REPORTS
Prof
Waqar Hussain
Covid-19
has tightened its tentacles around 7 billion heads; number of new cases
increasing, death toll is up; all economic and social lives are standstill,
patients are suffering, their loved ones worried and healthy ones are
frightened, not to catch covid. In this catastrophic scenario, there is good
news that coming summer will put shackle around this dreadful dragon.
FIRST REPORT
Chinese scientists, Jingyuan Wang,
Ke Tang, Kai Feng and Weifeng Lv, published paper on March 19, predicting
Covid-19’s transmission ability will reduce a lot by the end of March in some
countries. The research was conducted in 100 Chinese cities having 40 plus
cases. The data collected showed that high temperature and high relative
humidity significantly lessen the transmission of COVID-19.
Chinese researcher also inspected data
of other countries. They said: “In the early dates of the outbreak, countries
with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and
Iran) saw severe outbreaks than the warmer and more humid countries (e.g.
Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do.”
Chinese researchers also analyzed the
phenomenon of spread of other viral diseases. For example, influenza virus,
which is also a coronavirus, is more stable in cold temperature, and
respiratory droplets (containers of viruses) remain in air for longer time in
dry air. Further, cold and dry weather can also weaken the hosts’ immunity and
make them more susceptible to the virus. These mechanisms are also likely to
apply to the COVID-19 transmission. Our result is also consistent with the
evidence that high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the viability
of SARS coronavirus.”
The paper stated: “In July, the arrival
of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce
the transmission of the COVID-19; however, risks remain in some countries in
the southern hemisphere (e.g. Australia and South Africa.
SECOND
REPORT
A study conducted 10 years ago by Kate
Templeton, the University of Edinburgh UK, found that three coronaviruses – all
obtained from patients, showed “marked winter seasonality”. These viruses
seemed to cause infections mainly between December and April – a similar
pattern was observed in influenza virus.
There
are some early hints that Covid-19 may also vary with the seasons. The recent
spread of COVID-19 outbreaks around the world seems to suggest, it has a
preference for cool and dry conditions
THIRD
REPORT
An unpublished analysis comparing the
weather in 500 localities with Covid-19 cases, in different parts of world;
suggest a link between the spread of the virus and temperature, wind speed and
relative humidity. Another unpublished study has also revealed that higher
temperatures are linked to lower incidence of Covid-19.
Yet, another unpublished research
predicts that temperate warm and cold climates areas are the most vulnerable to
the current Covid-19 outburst, followed by arid regions. Tropical areas of the
world are less likely to be affected.
A study of the University of Maryland says
that the virus has spread most in regions of the world where average
temperatures was around 5-11C and relative humidity was low.
FOURTH
REPORT
Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel, both from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, analyzed global cases of COVID-19
and found that 90% of the infections occurred in areas that are between 3 to 17 C and with an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 (g/m3). (Absolute humidity is defined
by how much moisture is in the air, regardless of temperature.)
In
countries with an average temperature greater than 18 C and an absolute
humidity greater than 9 g/m3, the number of COVID-19 cases is less than 6% of
the global cases. (Lahore has temperature of 21C and humidity 68% today) It
clearly suggests "that the transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been
less efficient in warmer humid climate so far," the authors wrote.
Humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of
COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas.
FIFTH
REPORT
Dr
Eic Berg disclosed in his video lecture that for every 1-degree rise of
temperature and 1% relative humidity, there is decrease in Ro value (Effective
Reproduction which show how fast virus from patient is reproducing and
spreading to healthy person) by 0.0383 and 0.0224 respectively. And to stop the
epidemic, Ro Value is needed to be less than 1. So, the summer and rainy season
can effectively decrease the spread of COVID-19.
In the
beginning of this outbreak in January-February, in warmer and humid countries
like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand had much smaller outbreaks than the colder
and lesser humid countries like China, Iran, Italy, South Korea and japan.
Chines
reports further says: “If we plug the normal summer temperature and relative
humidity of Tokyo (28C and 85%, respectively) in Equation (1), the
transmission of the COVID-19 in Tokyo will be seriously reduced between March
and the Olympics….” The estimated R Value will decrease from 1.914 to 0.92(a
46% drop). So there is great likelihood that pandemic will slide downward. In
Pakistan, summer temperature touch 40-45 C and even 50 C, so the Covid outbreak
will be dramatically low. At present, we should observe strict social
distancing to put breaks on the corona onslaught.
SIXTH
REPORT OF COMPUTER
One intriguing study by scientists in China
suggests there is some sort of relationship between Covid-19 and the weather
conditions. They looked at nearly 2,300 deaths in Wuhan and compared them to
the humidity, temperature and pollution levels on the day they occurred.
Although it has yet to be published in an academic journal, their research
suggests mortality rates were lower on days when the humidity levels and
temperatures were higher. Their analysis also suggests that on days where the
maximum and minimum temperature ranges were greater, there were higher levels
of mortality. But this work is largely also based on computer modelling, so the
exact nature of this relationship, and whether it will be seen in other parts
of the world, is still to be explored.
SEVENTH
REPORT
The weather can also mess with our own
immune systems to make us more vulnerable to infections, too. Evidence suggest
that vitamin D levels in our bodies can have an effect on how vulnerable we are
against infectious diseases. In the winter, our bodies make less vitamin D from
sunlight exposure, mainly because we spend more time indoors and also wrap
ourselves in clothing, thus blocking UV to make vitamin D from ergo sterol
present in our skin. But some studies have found this theory is unlikely to
account for seasonal variation seen in diseases like flu.
Whether
cold weather weakens our immune systems? Some studies advocate it does, but
others find the cold can actually boost the number of cells that defend our
bodies from infection.
There
is stronger evidence that humidity can have a greater impact on our
vulnerability to infection. When the air is dry, it is thought to reduce the
amount of mucous coating of our lungs and airways. This sticky
secretion(mucous) forms a natural defense barrier against infections and when
it is lesser, one is more vulnerable to virus.
In sum, at high temperature,
virus bilayer fat coating will become soft, fragile and easy to be disrupted.
In low temperature, fat coating hardens into a rubber-like state and thus
protect the virus for longer when it is outside the body.
The rate of evaporation increases in
summer, water film around virus will evaporate and virus may go to ground
instead of flying and infecting.
Ro in northern hemisphere is 2.5 and southern
has 1.2; it also hints the effect of temperature.
The wind speed may also be useful as it
will increase rate of evaporation and can also diffuse virus to a level making
it is less harmful.
Temperature
and humidity in Pakistan will increase day by day. At present (today
25/03/2020) the temperature of Lahore is 21C; humidity 68% and wind speed is 8
km/hour. In coming days, temperature will rise gradually. The past average
temperature of Lahore in March is 27 C; April 34 C; May 39 C; June 40 C. So if
the above reports are true, that apparently look like, we are going to have a
sharp steep slope in cases in coming days.
The temperature profile of countries with sever outbreak is Wuhan 7 C; Rome 7 C; Qom 11C; Mashhad 12 C; New York 6 C; Washington 8C, etc( All has temperature less than 10 C or around 10 C). It is reported, that coronavirus servive at 27 C or so. So, in summer, situation will be much better.
Second,
wind will turn to storm in April to further ease out the issue, we are facing
now. And then in raining season humidity will increase to further lessen the
crisis. In nutshell, all the three weather factors, pointed by reporter, are
tilting in our fovour. IT IS A BIG HAPPY NEWS!
In
the meanwhile, social isolation policy is required to be observed strictly with
regular hand-washing. Our society is divided on covid
response; upper class and upper middle class, who has access to social media,
are getting panic while lower middle class and lower class is chilling and even
mocking people adopting preventive measures. There is no need to get panicky
and also there is no room to be careless. Both attitude will drag to
unnecessary ugly situation, sanity should prevail. Halcyon days are ahead!
Ro in northern hemisphere is 2.5 and southern
has 1.2; it also hints the effect of temperature.
The temperature profile of countries with sever outbreak is Wuhan 7 C; Rome 7 C; Qom 11C; Mashhad 12 C; New York 6 C; Washington 8C, etc( All has temperature less than 10 C or around 10 C). It is reported, that coronavirus servive at 27 C or so. So, in summer, situation will be much better.
