GOOD NEWS: COMING SUMMER WILL CONTROL CORONAVIRUS; SCIENTISTS REPORTS

GOOD NEWS: COMING SUMMER WILL CONTROL CORONAVIRUS; SCIENTISTS REPORTS

Prof Waqar Hussain 

Covid-19 has tightened its tentacles around 7 billion heads; number of new cases increasing, death toll is up; all economic and social lives are standstill, patients are suffering, their loved ones worried and healthy ones are frightened, not to catch covid. In this catastrophic scenario, there is good news that coming summer will put shackle around this dreadful dragon.

    FIRST REPORT

          Chinese scientists, Jingyuan Wang, Ke Tang, Kai Feng and Weifeng Lv, published paper on March 19, predicting Covid-19’s transmission ability will reduce a lot by the end of March in some countries. The research was conducted in 100 Chinese cities having 40 plus cases. The data collected showed that high temperature and high relative humidity significantly lessen the transmission of COVID-19.

         Chinese researcher also inspected data of other countries. They said: “In the early dates of the outbreak, countries with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and Iran) saw severe outbreaks than the warmer and more humid countries (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do.”

      Chinese researchers also analyzed the phenomenon of spread of other viral diseases. For example, influenza virus, which is also a coronavirus, is more stable in cold temperature, and respiratory droplets (containers of viruses) remain in air for longer time in dry air. Further, cold and dry weather can also weaken the hosts’ immunity and make them more susceptible to the virus. These mechanisms are also likely to apply to the COVID-19 transmission. Our result is also consistent with the evidence that high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the viability of SARS coronavirus.”

     

The paper stated: “In July, the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19; however, risks remain in some countries in the southern hemisphere (e.g. Australia and South Africa.

SECOND REPORT

         A study conducted 10 years ago by Kate Templeton, the University of Edinburgh UK, found that three coronaviruses – all obtained from patients, showed “marked winter seasonality”. These viruses seemed to cause infections mainly between December and April – a similar pattern was observed in influenza virus.

          There are some early hints that Covid-19 may also vary with the seasons. The recent spread of COVID-19 outbreaks around the world seems to suggest, it has a preference for cool and dry conditions

THIRD REPORT

           An unpublished analysis comparing the weather in 500 localities with Covid-19 cases, in different parts of world; suggest a link between the spread of the virus and temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. Another unpublished study has also revealed that higher temperatures are linked to lower incidence of Covid-19.

           Yet, another unpublished research predicts that temperate warm and cold climates areas are the most vulnerable to the current Covid-19 outburst, followed by arid regions. Tropical areas of the world are less likely to be affected.

          A study of the University of Maryland says that the virus has spread most in regions of the world where average temperatures was around 5-11C  and relative humidity was low.

FOURTH REPORT

           Qasim Bukhari and Yusuf Jameel, both from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, analyzed global cases of COVID-19 and found that 90% of the infections occurred in areas that are between 3 to 17 C and with an absolute humidity of 4 to 9 (g/m3). (Absolute humidity is defined by how much moisture is in the air, regardless of temperature.)

           In countries with an average temperature greater than 18 C and an absolute humidity greater than 9 g/m3, the number of COVID-19 cases is less than 6% of the global cases. (Lahore has temperature of 21C and humidity 68% today) It clearly suggests "that the transmission of 2019-nCoV virus might have been less efficient in warmer humid climate so far," the authors wrote. Humidity especially might play a role, given that most of the transmission of COVID-19 has happened in relatively less humid areas.

FIFTH REPORT

        Dr Eic Berg disclosed in his video lecture that for every 1-degree rise of temperature and 1% relative humidity, there is decrease in Ro value (Effective Reproduction which show how fast virus from patient is reproducing and spreading to healthy person) by 0.0383 and 0.0224 respectively. And to stop the epidemic, Ro Value is needed to be less than 1. So, the summer and rainy season can effectively decrease the spread of COVID-19.

        In the beginning of this outbreak in January-February, in warmer and humid countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand had much smaller outbreaks than the colder and lesser humid countries like China, Iran, Italy, South Korea and japan.

           Chines reports further says: “If we plug the normal summer temperature and relative humidity of Tokyo (28C and 85%, respectively) in Equation (1), the transmission of the COVID-19 in Tokyo will be seriously reduced between March and the Olympics….” The estimated R Value will decrease from 1.914 to 0.92(a 46% drop). So there is great likelihood that pandemic will slide downward. In Pakistan, summer temperature touch 40-45 C and even 50 C, so the Covid outbreak will be dramatically low. At present, we should observe strict social distancing to put breaks on the corona onslaught.

SIXTH REPORT OF COMPUTER

        One intriguing study by scientists in China suggests there is some sort of relationship between Covid-19 and the weather conditions. They looked at nearly 2,300 deaths in Wuhan and compared them to the humidity, temperature and pollution levels on the day they occurred. Although it has yet to be published in an academic journal, their research suggests mortality rates were lower on days when the humidity levels and temperatures were higher. Their analysis also suggests that on days where the maximum and minimum temperature ranges were greater, there were higher levels of mortality. But this work is largely also based on computer modelling, so the exact nature of this relationship, and whether it will be seen in other parts of the world, is still to be explored.

SEVENTH REPORT

         The weather can also mess with our own immune systems to make us more vulnerable to infections, too. Evidence suggest that vitamin D levels in our bodies can have an effect on how vulnerable we are against infectious diseases. In the winter, our bodies make less vitamin D from sunlight exposure, mainly because we spend more time indoors and also wrap ourselves in clothing, thus blocking UV to make vitamin D from ergo sterol present in our skin. But some studies have found this theory is unlikely to account for seasonal variation seen in diseases like flu.

       Whether cold weather weakens our immune systems? Some studies advocate it does, but others find the cold can actually boost the number of cells that defend our bodies from infection.

       There is stronger evidence that humidity can have a greater impact on our vulnerability to infection. When the air is dry, it is thought to reduce the amount of mucous coating of our lungs and airways. This sticky secretion(mucous) forms a natural defense barrier against infections and when it is lesser, one is more vulnerable to virus.

       In sum, at high temperature, virus bilayer fat coating will become soft, fragile and easy to be disrupted. In low temperature, fat coating hardens into a rubber-like state and thus protect the virus for longer when it is outside the body.

      The rate of evaporation increases in summer, water film around virus will evaporate and virus may go to ground instead of flying and infecting.

Ro in northern hemisphere is 2.5 and southern has 1.2; it also hints the effect of temperature.

       The wind speed may also be useful as it will increase rate of evaporation and can also diffuse virus to a level making it is less harmful.

Temperature and humidity in Pakistan will increase day by day. At present (today 25/03/2020) the temperature of Lahore is 21C; humidity 68% and wind speed is 8 km/hour. In coming days, temperature will rise gradually. The past average temperature of Lahore in March is 27 C; April 34 C; May 39 C; June 40 C. So if the above reports are true, that apparently look like, we are going to have a sharp steep slope in cases in coming days.

The temperature profile of countries with sever outbreak is Wuhan 7 C; Rome 7 C; Qom 11C; Mashhad 12 C; New York 6 C; Washington 8C, etc( All has temperature less than 10 C or around 10 C). It is reported, that coronavirus  servive at 27 C or so. So, in summer, situation will be much better.

Second, wind will turn to storm in April to further ease out the issue, we are facing now. And then in raining season humidity will increase to further lessen the crisis. In nutshell, all the three weather factors, pointed by reporter, are tilting in our fovour. IT IS A BIG HAPPY NEWS!

     In the meanwhile, social isolation policy is required to be observed strictly with regular hand-washing. Our society is divided on covid response; upper class and upper middle class, who has access to social media, are getting panic while lower middle class and lower class is chilling and even mocking people adopting preventive measures. There is no need to get panicky and also there is no room to be careless. Both attitude will drag to unnecessary ugly situation, sanity should prevail. Halcyon days are ahead!