CHOOSE THE BEST MODEL TO ERADICATE CORONAVIRUS

CHOOSE THE BEST MODEL TO ERADICATE CORONAVIRUS

Prof Waqar Hussain

     

      Corona virus besieged all countries, every country has its own method to counter coronavirus. And so far, there are few successful models.

1)   CHINESE MODEL:

         China reported first confirmed case on 31 December, 2019. Then, China watched its behavior, method of spread, symptoms, treatment and then quickly chalked out a plan to combat it. Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered “Resolute Efforts” to contain the virus. On January 23, Wuhan, epicenter of epidemic, went into complete lockdown, with single goal, “nobody in; nobody out”. All public transport stopped. People were blocked from entering or leaving the city by air, rail or road. Those in city were ordered to stay at home. An ‘Unseen impregnable wall’ was erected around Wuhan, even the train and buses that have already left off for other cities, were stopped on route and returned to Wuhan. The posted letters and goods that were on way for other parts, their delivery was stopped and were brought back to Wuhan.

            Then 15 other cities of Hubei Province imposed similar measures, locking down movement of 60 million people. Another unseen wall was erected around province as second line of defense. Then China utilized resources of remaining 22 provinces to generate economy, medicine, equipment, health workers, etc. to be utilized in turbulent Hubei. So, more than 20,000 medical workers and relevant material were brought to Wuhan and other of Hubei province to treat patient and to save healthy, house detained individuals.

       Hospital installed overnight, free testing started at Fever hospital. Patient of other diseases were given 3 months’ medicine instead of routine supply of 1 month and were asked to contact physician in need through “WeChat”. People were asked to stay at homes. Food and other essential commodities were supplied at the door. So, a social distancing of concrete nature, with minimum trouble, was maintained.

     With patient, they tried different medicines, following the rule of hit and trial and examined their result. The effective medicament was analyzed scientifically and was suggested to hospitals to give them to patients. In 7 days of lockdown, the number of people, each infected individual gave the virus to, drop to 1.05. Above measures prevented cases from increasing by 67-fold, otherwise, there would have been nearly 8 million cases by the end of February. On the contrary, Curve first flattened and then dipped to zero. China defeated Corona!

      World Health Organization congratulated China on this unique and unprecedented health response that reversed the escalating case. Dr. Bruce Aylwart, Head of WHO observation team said, Chinese model showed time is essence, because every day one stopped to think: Should do or not? Virus doubles. China’s prompt response sat an example for the rest of countries to follow her suit.

          2) TURKMENISTAN MODEL:

       This model is based on saying of Ken Schramn: “A smart person learns from his mistake, but truly wise person learns from the mistakes of others”. When corona virus started spreading to other countries, Turkmenistan didn’t waste time and immediately closed its land border, cancelled flights to China and some other countries in early February and started diverting all international flight form capital Ashgabat (adjacent to Iran) to Turkmenabad in the North East, where a quarantine zone was created.

         Further, to make sure safety, President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, also known as “Father Protector” ordered to fumigate public places with traditional plant “harmala” as prophylactic measure. (The Holy book of Zoroastrianism “Avesta” describes harmala as a calming and purifying agent). The harmala contain alkaloids; harmine, peganine (vasicine) and harmalinein that kills some microbes. Learning lesson from Chinese “every delay is dangerous in war” and acting promptly, they made their country safe with zero cases, whereas, in their neighbor Iran, corona virus was playing havoc. They did another thing, authorities avoided the use of word “corona virus” as much as possible to avoid fear. German says: “Fear from a mice and he will become a wolf”. So they not only warded off coronavirus but also corona phobia. Unfortunately, this model is not applicable now as more than 200 countries are already crippling with corona virus.

          3)KOREAN MODEL

        Countries around the world are shut down to control corona virus but South Korean people have started to come back on the street. Why?

         In late February, South Korea was reporting sharp increase in cases with over 5000 infected. South Korea was registering highest number of confirmed cases in the world but something happened and it started flattening the curve. They were able to do it, with lesson learned in 2015, when they fought MERS, that infected 186 and killed 38; highest number outside the middle east. They got lesson, the diagnostic test is vital followed by preventative measures. When China had 72,000 plus cases, South Korea had only 30 cases, in spite of low number, health authorities started working with bio-tech companies to develop a test of COVID-19 and soon they had thousands of testing kits and distributed to every hospital. They had prepared themselves for the worst; and the worst quickly followed. In late February, corona virus patient raised to 3000 plus; this made South Korea largest outside China, which at that moment had near 80,000 cases.

          Game started in Daegu where a woman went to hospital with fever. As the government had already equipped hospital with COVID test, doctor tested her positive and the woman was named as ‘Patient 31’. Then they traced her movement and identified the person who came to her contact and then they tested those people. People who tested positive, were isolated and treated and all the people, they had been in contact, were traced and tested too. This is called ‘contact tracing’. In this tracing, South Korea tested over 9000 people who have been in contact to someone who was tested positive. After Diego, testing started in other parts of the country. About 20,000 people were tested per day. South Korea picked the patient among populace as household lady picks gravel in the Lentil and separates it.

       Then they developed a software on smart phone. Whenever a confirmed case found, nearby office sent a message “Emergency alert” to be cautions. Website and private apps compiled information, allowing everyone to see if a confirmed patient went to a pharmacy, hospital or anywhere else. By launching “corona map”; citizens were able to check infected locations and avoided going there. If anyone cross passed tract of patient, he went through test. Thus, they broke the chain of coronavirus on large scale.

       As a result, South Korea was able to test 100 thousand people, more than any other country. This policy flattened the curve and enabled government to avoid lockdown. Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong followed South Korea and went through extensive testing. This is how Korea is containing corona.

          4) SWEDISH MODEL

          At time when most of the world is locked, Swedish industry is running; markets trading; restaurant serving; school educating; elder walking; children playing; old people resting at home. Swedish advocate limited social distancing. Their strategy is to protect the vulnerable, while allowing the virus to spread through healthy people so they can develop antibodies called Herd immunity.

       Dr. Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist with an experience of fighting EBOLA in Africa, is architect of corona virus plan. However, Sweden scientist community disagrees with Tegnell strategy. Last week, more than 2000 doctors, professors and researchers persuaded government to go far aggressive lockdown. Sweden policy is right or wrong; time will decide. However, Tegnell is confident and says: Corona and coins are both to be taken care of; Closing industry, market, school, border; cannot go for months or years.

                 5) PAKISTANI MODEL:

          Government presented a document regarding coronavirus in the Supreme Court, in which it was estimated that there will be 50,000 cases at the end of April. Luckily, middle of April has passed, country has around 7000 cases, 7 times lesser than guesstimate. Curve is about to be flattened.

           Government planned to fight coronavirus, keeping in view the economic situation of the country and decided to go for “smart lockdown”, contact tracking and mass awareness about precautionary measures. Whenever a confirmed case appears: his contacts are searched and tested or kept in quarantine for 15 days. In Chiniot district, 6 persons who returned from Iran, were tested positive. Government sealed the villages of their belonging.

         Smart lockdown allow citizen in specific hours to go out if necessary and didn’t allow to mess around. This model seems to be amalgamation of above models, designed to suite our condition. At present, it is working and that is why government has relaxed ‘smart lockdown’ further. Coming days will decide whether this relaxation is good or bad? If curve is flattened, Pakistan will be the first country to set an example of viable and practicable smart lockdown model to whom, many will follow۔
       We should not go for 'soft lockdown' , replacing 'smart lockdown', keeping in view the flattening trend of curves as Saga says: Don't say hello till you are out of woods!